General Discussion and Useful Links > Useful Links And Articles

China in transition

(1/2) > >>

JohnB:
an interesting Forbes article on the Chinese economy is a 5 year transition from
an export country to building up a vibrant Chinese middle class.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/22/next-five-years-will-bring-huge-changes-to-chinas-commodity-demand/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
I guess that Willy has a front row seat.

In 5 years, per capita income projected at $20,000...twice what it is today.
I think it may be a good time soon to start up an American marriage agency to slop up the extraordinary surplus of Chinese males that dominate the country. 

Willy The Londoner:
Yes I am definately looking at the next five years and further just to see what this country can achieve.

I certainly have had a ringside seat over the past 6 years.  300 million people taken out of poverty in that time. Still a way to go there but the middle classes are rising in numbers.   The number of new cars on the road. And smaller things like fewer babies being carried on adults back and more being pushed in strollers!

The prices of homes fell by 5% on average but it has not deflected the thousands of tower blocks that are still going up around me.  Some in the West say housing is a 'bubble' waiting to burst!    But I think not, homes are not easy to buy here. Large deposits are needed and with higher wages year on year means that very few home buyers are likely to walk away from a home because they cannot afford the repayments. In the West, before the financial crash, mortgages over 25 - 35 years and with deposits as low a 5% fueled the bubble.  This will not happen in China.

Even those 'lost cities' built by property speculation and having laid empty for years are coming to life as more people leave the high price areas such as Beijing and Shanghai.

What we must remember that the New China is only just over 30 years old.  My father in law is 90 this year and he was over the now retiring age before this new phase in the life of this country took place.

I wish that I had 30 years left in me to see just how this country will develop I know that is unlikely but whatever I have left then i look forward to being amazed

Willy

Pineau:
What Fiona noticed during her last trip to Guangzhou was inflation. Prices at the Chinese markets and restaurants  are rising. Food, material and durable goods have gone up.

maxx:
Gerry my mother in law has ben talking about the rise of inflation for the last seven ears. Willy the ghost cities still exist.And  they are still building more apartment buildings that most people can't afford.And to build those apartment buildings the are tearing down people's houses.And giving them nothing in return.

As far as the automotive business in China.They have cut production in half because those that have bought cars.Have already bought the latest and greatest.And there are very few new purchase like there were a few years ago. And they can't export there cars because the don't meet the safety requirements of most of the other countries.

In my opinion it is just basic economics. When you produce more then you can sell.You are going to loose money.you do it to many times and you will collapse the market.Just like the Arabs did with the oil.

David E:
Interesting topic !

Many of the doomsayers here in Aus are bemoaning the end of the "Mining Boom" and blaming China's falling prospects as a reason why this is happening.
Naturally, if and when the quantity and value of the export minerals we send from here falls, then our revenue will suffer...

Many so-called experts see this as the beginning of a catastrophe and basically signals the end of the World as we know it.

What none of these Gurus sem to understand was that the Mining Boom was in the main a capital fuelled excercise in increasing capacity and reducing the actual cost of production. So even though volumes have fallen from the dizzy heights of the last 10 years, our capital expenditure has enabled most substantial Miners to make adequate profits in this falling market.

China has accepted that from here on, their growth rate will be modest...about 7 % p.a. !! instead of the double digit growth we have experienced.

I ask you...if ANY Western economy announced that it would achieve a 7 % growth over the next 5 years they would be killed in the rush to invest...but for China, the Gurus see this as a negative sentimant.

Hey-ho....I guess economists cant see the wood for the trees...

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page